Sunday Dispatch: The Adirondacks

This week I’m writing to you from the Adirondacks of upstate New York. While I am covered in insect bites, I can confirm that these mountains are beautiful. I am surrounded by a babbling brook and luscious trees. I am excited to be here in this tremendous space. Over the past few weeks I have been traveling and so I haven’t been able to keep everyone up on all the news. I wanted to write a quick update to you all.

January 6th

The House Select committee on the January 6th attack proceeds apace. Each day we seem to get more damning information. A few highlights are:

• Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas has had her communications with Trump lawyers revealed
• There was a going pardons list for actions connected to the attack
• Militias prepared the groundwork thanks to the help of republican house members who gave tours of the building to help them plan their attack
• Donald Trump knew about the attack and was complicit in its planning and participated in the election by telling his crowd to march on the capitol. This provided cover for the militias to enter the capitol.

Overall, what we have learned so far is that this was not an accident. It took planning and coordination across everyone from Trump world. The justice department has asked for transcripts of all proceedings for its on-going criminal investigations. The committee has also exposed the Big Lie of election fraud for what it is using the words of people in Trump’s inner circle. All of this taken together shows that there was concerted effort to undermine democracy by Trump and his gang.

Ukraine

The war in Ukraine continues with losses for the Ukrainians in the east of the country. They are pleading for more weapons and more help. President Biden announced another $1 Billion in aid and weapons to Ukraine. From my view, it looks like Ukraine is likely to lose the eastern portion of the country that is Russian speaking and has been trying to separate from the government in Kiev since 2014. Although not Putin’s original end-game scenario, it would still count as a win for Moscow. With Mariupol in rubble, and Odessa days away from falling, Russia is beginning to cement it’s position in the east of Ukraine. The EU council recommended Ukraine for membership this week and Macron and Scholtz are encouraging the peace talks. Pressure will be on to Zelenskyy to take a deal—any deal really—to bring the way to a close.

Inflation and Markets

This week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by .75%, the largest increase since 1994. The central bank is trying to slow down inflation but predicts that there will be inflationary pressure until 2024. The stock market did not take this news well and stocks fell the most they had this week since 1987. Almost every indicator is down from housing prices to consumer confidence. Jerome Powell, the central bank governor, admitted this week that much of what was causing inflation was out of control of the Federal Reserve. A bright spot of economic news was that unemployment remains low. The labor force participation rate ticked up slightly to 62.5% and wages have continued to grow.

Americans already feel like we are in a recession due in no small part to rising prices and pain at the gas pump. We are not officially in a recession yet but the cost of living has skyrocketed in recent months and that has everyone feeling recessionary despite official numbers. The stock market was well due for a corrections with stock prices being nearly decoupled from company valuations for years. This is a time to hold the line, pay down debt, and brace for tough economic times ahead.

And that’s my view of the world this week. I’m going to get back to writing on various projects and enjoying the beautiful views from my temporary office in the library of a historic stone mansion here in Elizabethtown. Have a good week everyone!