Biden State of the Union 2023

And based on this speech, the State of the Union is strong! At 1 hour and 15 minutes, I felt like the speech was a little long, but he hit on all the points that we anticipated and a few that were unexpected. Lauren Boebert shook her head a lot and MTG was in full force, looking like Cruella de Ville in a white fur coat and heckling from the back bench.

Overall, the speech was a bit nationalistic, very populist, but really hit the mark on all points. Most office-holders will get a small bump in popularity after the speech, and I think Biden will get a nice bump from the speech. It will be interesting to see what the overnight ratings are on the speech (they are not available at the time of writing).

The Republican response was delivered by Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the newly elected governor of Arkansas. It was boilerplate republican talking points and sounded like it was written by Fox News, especially on foreign policy and the border crisis. She boldly called him old and unfit to serve as commander-in-chief at points during her response. She extolled her accomplishments and is used “wokeness” and “culture wars” like a cudgel agains Biden and the broader Left. Not only that, but she also remarked that the Biden had surrendered his presidency to the radical Left. I would keep an eye on her because she talked like she was running for President. Her response read like someone who was about to announce their run for office. She is only 40 years old, and so she has plenty of time to get ready for a run in 2028 or 2032. I was also surprised as her calls for “new generation.” Solidly, a millennial, she seemed to offer a clarion call for new, and much younger leadership.

Fentanyl, Crime and Border

This section came near the end of the speech. There was a kerfuffle on the republican side during the part about Fentanyl, and I couldn’t hear what was said. Kevin McCarthy looked to try to calm them down, and Joe said, “You got it.” Whatever it was they were complaining about. He had a guest with a daughter who had died from an overdose. He was touching and perfect, and he even got Republican to stand up.

He reaffirmed his vision to end the scourge of cancer and had parents of a sickly child to back up his claim. He talked about the personal safety of people and crime while also talking about removing guns from the streets, passing the assault weapons ban (again), and putting a stop to school shootings. I thought that was clever because Democrats have been criticized for not talking about the rising crime rates. Biden took that head on and then pivoted right into talking about guns. Perfect!

What Have You Done for me Lately?

One of the best parts of this speech was Biden recounting the accomplishments of his administration. With a 41% approval rating, it seems that his achievements just aren’t getting through to the American people. I thought it was a great move to discuss all the infrastructure projects that are going up in red America, like the new bridge between Ohio and Kentucky in the Cincinnati area. I think that was a great way to reinforce his bipartisanship narrative.

He talked a lot about the new manufacturing jobs and the fact that they don’t require a college degree. He shared about the new semiconductor chip plants in Ohio and the renaissance of American jobs happening throughout the Rust Belt. NBC described the messaging as “disciplined” but this is another important point: Biden is bringing home the bacon, and it appears that he may very well run in 2024. This speech did not sound like he intends to pass the torch onto VP Harris or others.

There is pending legislation on excess fees from banking to airlines and it’s quite impressive that he went straight in on that and talked about how it’s so important to pass that, which gets into a major theme of the speech: bipartisanship.

Bipartisan Ships

Biden really leaned into bipartisanship in this speech. He rallied republicans as much as he rallied democrats on issues ranging from supporting the troops to affirming that he would veto any cuts to medicare and social security, and remarked that his plan would make Social Security solvent until the 2050s. He often talked about working together with Republicans, both in the present and in his past time in the Senate. I think he offered an olive branch to the new GOP majority in the House. The message was clear, “let’s work together to achieve our goals.” This was also evident in his tour of infrastructure projects in red states.

He spent a good deal of time reaching out to Republicans and frequently looked at their side of the room and addressed them directly on issues. After the Trump years, and even the Obama years, this kind of bipartisanship hasn’t really been seen in Washington for some time. I got big Bill Clinton vibes from the speech.

Despite all of that, Biden took on election denial and the insurrection head on and reported that we had faced the biggest democratic crisis since the Civil War and that we had survived and needed to trust our institutions again.

Foreign Policy

Foreign Policy was always going to be a hot topic. Between the recent Chinese spy balloon and the war in Ukraine, the international picture was going to be important and this part of the speech reaffirmed the commitment to Ukraine but also was a full-throated attack on the Chinese and Xi Jinping personally. He affirmed American sovereignty and I would say put the Chinese on notice. Obviously, Afghanistan did not come up, but he did reaffirm his commitment to American security. Governor Sanders complained about how “unsafe” the world is under Biden as opposed to Trump, but Biden’s acknowledgement of how the free world came together behind Ukraine was inspiring. If anything, it was an old-fashioned type of foreign policy speech with strong Kennedy vibes to it.

Economics

One of the biggest stories in any State of the Union speech is the state of the economy. We are facing high inflation, and no president has presided over this kind of inflation since Carter. However, President Biden, went right in on the budget, the debt ceiling, and how the economy is improving with better jobs and higher wages. He spoke about how fast the economy has grown and how it’s important to pay the nation’s bills and that they are Congress raised the debt ceiling three times for Trump and that they needed to get the job done now. I thought that was an excellent frame for the discussion and probably took some teeth out of the GOP when it comes to spending cuts. He outright stated that any cuts of medicare or Social Security would earn a veto from him. He got many people to standup when he affirmed his desire to help seniors.

He took on inflation by talking about wage growth and the relative success of the inflation reduction act, and pointed out more ways Congress could continue to reduce inflation and help prices come down. That being said, he also talked much about America’s export economy and how important it was that things were made in America. For the first time, Biden admitted that America had sold her jobs overseas and that had not worked out well for people, and it was time for it to be undone. One of the big mistakes Democrats have made over the past years is not taking responsibility for the trade deals that created the hollowing out of America. It was refreshing to see him take that on.

Final Thoughts

There were no gaffs or obvious mistakes. VP Harris was supportive and hit all her marks. Biden needed this to be a success, and it was. I think some of his policy proposals have a good chance of getting passed. That being said, he gave Republicans much to chew on and much to spin in their own media machine. I think he made overt efforts to reach out to the other side and it is going to be much harder for even the most extreme aspects of the party to shy away from working with democrats and the White House.