Why People Aren’t Protesting Trump

Donald Trump is one of the most divisive Presidents in history. However, given all that the country has been through over the past 3 years, many people are asking an important question: where are the protests? Right now, Trump has the country engaged in a trade-war, there is a humanitarian crisis at the southern border, and the administration is actively attempting to gut the Affordable Heatlhcare Act. On top of that, there is a relaxation of environmental regulations for industries and a sell off of public lands. Trump also passed his signature tax bill that ended up giving so much money to corporations that Republicans didn’t bother running on it in 2018. Meanwhile, with a conservative court, reproductive rights have come into sharp focus. 

With all these things going on around the country, especially in areas where Americans don’t agree with the administration, it seems like there should be protests. In France, people took to the streets because the price of petrol went up. Hong Kong is fighting mainland China and their changes to the legal system for people who live in Hong Kong. Where are the American protests? If Trump only represents about 40% of the country, shouldn’t at least part of the other 60% be actively protesting the administration?

Politics of the Personal

Looking at the 2018 election results, Americans are not happy with GOP leadership. Americans swept democrats into power in the house and in statehouses across the country. Even Kansas elected a Democrat governor to replace Brownback. People clearly aren’t happy, where are the protests? There are a few factors. A big one is the geography of the United States. It is difficult for a majority of the country to get the national capitol for protest. But there is also the factor that for a variety of issues that Trump has put into place, it hasn’t really affected the lives of everyday Americans. Things haven’t gotten measurably better but things also haven’t gotten worse. People are still accessing health insurance on the exchanges. It is expensive but it is there. For states that have expanded Medicaid, more people are covered and able to access healthcare. Although auto workers, and others who thought their jobs were safe, have been shown the door; the economy has purred along and a recession seems far away. People just aren’t personally affected by any of these policies yet. The tariffs on Chinese imports haven’t raised prices in a meaningful way that has affected most people and many are glad the US is fighting back against China. No President has ever taken a stand against aggressive Chinese trade tactics before. For those who have watched their jobs get shipped overseas for the last 20 years, that’s a perk, not something to be unhappy about. 

Immigration is a divisive topic. Many Americans don’t mind immigrants but many don’t like illegal immigrants. Kids in cages and the reports of families being separated at the border have caused moral outrage but what can the regular struggling person do? The problem is far away and what can the average person do about it? The people that have gone to facilities have been small in number and often lambasted in the media for stunts like raising a Mexican flag over one such facility in Colorado. 

The reason that most people aren’t protesting is that overall, life under Trump just isn’t that bad for most. That makes it a hard sell to protest. The French protests sparked because a specific policy affected everyday people in their everyday lives. 

Impeachment?

One of the reasons that Nancy Pelosi has been hesitant to take on impeachment hearings is the seeming lack of popular support. I imagine that it would be far easier for her to take on the deeply political process that is impeachment if she could look out of the capitol and see people outside demanding that it happen. One of the biggest hesitations that Democrat leadership has around impeachment is the seeming lack of public support. While the message of “Donald Trump is bad” has been the narrative since election night 2016, for many Americans, life under Trump still isn’t that bad.

In the earliest days of the Watergate scandal, Nixon retained high support and people protested the procedure of impeaching him in the early days. Nixon didn’t lose support until almost the end of the process. The impeachment proceedings were what finally eroded Nixon’s support. Even the Agnew scandal (go listen to the Bag Man podcast to learn more about that) didn’t really erode support from Nixon himself.

Americans are rather slow to protest. Politics takes leadership. Many people are politically disengaged unless it actively affects their everyday lives. Which means that while Donald Trump destroys institutions and runs the country by tweet, it shows a distinct lack of leadership on the part of the opposition party to not lead the effort to hold a co-equal branch of government accountable for actions that are against the constitution. Although democrats were hoping for a blockbuster Mueller hearing that would spark the public outrage that they would like to proceed on doing their job, it is not likely to happen. Public support of impeachment did not stop Republicans in 1998 from proceeding with impeachment anyway.

Democrats are fearful of the public blowback but it is important to remember, impeachment did not cost Republicans in 2000. They won seats in Congress and ultimately (although controversially) won the White House for 8 years. Democrats are unlikely to get the public support they seem to require. Because for most Americans, Trump just isn’t that bad.

What Might Move the Needle?

A new set of tariffs on Chinese imports are set to come into effect this week. At only 10%, the tariff is small but it will affect a variety of regular consumer goods. For middle class and upper-class consumers, the increase in price won’t be noticeable. For lower-class consumers, the increase may be devastating for their strained budgets. It will suck millions of dollars out of American’s pockets and put it directly into the pockets of government.

Contrary to what Trump says on TV, tariffs are not paid by the country exporting the items. Tariffs are paid by the consumers of the products in the country of import. Tariffs, in the past, have been used to protect domestic industry and make imports more expensive. Modern globalization have created global supply chains for most companies and tariffs often are just an unnecessary trade barrier for modern companies. The real cost goes righ to the consumer.

The higher costs of products as a result of his misguided trade war may finally bring the reality of the Trump administration to the everyday American. In other words, it may be just what Democrats need to garner the public support that they seem to need. If they are waiting for Trump to finally begin to lose popularity, unnecessary product costs might just do it.