US and China in the Pacific

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China is making overtures to Taiwan, what does this mean for the balance of power in the Pacific?

Today we’re going to take a break from current events and think about a political and military problem that has been in the news recently. Jenny Tsai, president of Taiwan, recently gave a speech about relations between Taiwan and mainland China. This conflict has been heating up as evident in the tone of her speech.

Tensions over Taiwan between the US and China are heating up. Beijing has been far more overt about the island nation in recent months. This could lead to a dangerous showdown between the two powers if certain steps aren’t taken. The escalation is already evident with the new AUKUS submarine deal between the UK, US, and Australia to equip Australia with nuclear submarines (much to the unhappiness of the French).

Chinese Taipei

During the chinese civil war, when the communist forces under Mao Zedong seized most of the country the democratic forces until Chiang Kai-shek fled mainland China for a small island off the coast called formosa. It had been part of China for centuries but was mostly poor fishing villages. The island soon gained a whole new group of residents. What would become the nation of Taiwan separated from communist China and was officially recognized as “China” until Nixon opened relations with mainland China in 1971. After that, Taiwan was removed from the United Nations and was no longer referred to as “China.” That honor would move from Taipei to Beijing and China’s entrance back onto he global stage began. Since then, Beijing has considered Taiwan a runaway province of the country and has promised that reunification is the only answer. When the British returned Hong Kong to China in 1997, the Chinese assured the British that the democratic system of Hong Kong would be preserved under the “One Nation, Two Systems” doctrine. For nearly 20 years, this seemed to work until Beijing pushed for a new security law in 2018 that sparked protests. The government in Hong Kong is now filled with stooges picked by Beijing rather than those honestly elected by the people of Hong Kong. Hong Kongers can now be taken to the mainland for trial and tried under mainland Chinese law rather than local Hong Kong laws. Needless to say, this crackdown did nothing for a reunification referendum that was pushed in Taiwan the following year.

A Dangerous Game

The unfortunate reality is that the Chinese and American economies are inextricably linked. Any sort of military conflict over Taiwan will lead to global instability not seen since World War II. China is getting more aggressive with more violations of Taiwanese airspace and harsh rhetoric from Beijing. The US has been a harsh critic of this and has repeatedly reinforced its protection treaty with Taiwan. If the Chinese attack Taiwan, the US is obligated to come to their aid that would certainly lead to a hot war in the area. The Chinese have the advantage of being relatively close to home while the US must launch attacks from bases in Japan, Guam, and Qatar. Unlike its more recent adversaries, the Chinese have a modern military and while they don’t have as many ships or as sophisticated technology as the US military, many military planners rightly realize that any conflict with China could result in the loss of at least one aircraft carrier and would cost tens of thousands of lives.

Economically, the world economy would grind a halt as shipping would not be able to leave southeast Asia for as long as the conflict lasted and the US would pressure allies to cut ties with China as well as join in the war effort. China could suddenly dump US debt causing interest rates to soar. In an economic crisis this would be devastating to the US economy. However, China wouldn’t have the upper hand either. Without the ability to export, China’s economy would grind to a halt. Capital would flood out of the country leaving the precarious state of China’s economy teetering on the edge of collapse.

How Likely?

The likelihood of a US/China conflict over Taiwan is anyone’s best guess. This conflict has long been on the list of potential causes of global war for 20 years now. Anyone who seriously studies international relations knows that of five top conflicts in the world, Taiwan is near the top in terms of likelihood. Can US diplomacy with Beijing head off a hot war over Taiwan? I’m not saying that it is impossible but given the current environment and China’s ambitions in the south China sea, I would say a diplomatic solution is a long-shot at best. There will be some kind of conflict and it is likely to involve ships and planes. Can China flood the zone and counter US air power? Can the US deploy force fast enough to save Taiwan from Chinese ground troops? These are the questions that Pentagon planners spend years working on. Given the new submarine deal with Australia, it appears that the Pentagon is looking for help in countering the Chinese threat. New submarines from Australian ports will be able to sink Chinese ships faster and may cause the Chinese to think twice before attempting an invasion. That being said, the Chinese government tends to think in far longer terms than the US. If and when China chooses to strike it will either be as a distraction from domestic troubles or it will be at a time that they calculate they can get ahead of the United States.