Introduction
Welcome to The Cameron Journal Newsletter! This week, it’s all about Trump Tariffs and the reverberations around the world from what can only be described as an economic reset.
The World is Hard, This is Not
Each week I send out the latest headlines, the latest videos from The Cameron Journal and commentary about the week’s events. If you’re new here, my name is Cameron Lee Cowan M.A. MFA, and I’m the Creative Director here at The Cameron Journal. You can learn more about me on the about page. I do research and commentary on politics, culture, and the world around us. Remember, The World is Hard, This is Not.
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Updates
Welcome to May, everyone! I had a great birthday last weekend and I want to thank everyone for all the birthday wishes. I had a great dinner with friends and tucked into a very nice glass of Knob Creek whiskey for the evening. I only drink a few times a year, and now I’m good on whiskey until at least New Year’s Eve.
This was a crazy week in the headlines but also a crazy week in life. We had a bunch of great content on The Cameron Journal this week and some fascinating threads on all your favorite social platforms. I definitely crashed into Thursday and Friday. I did 5 podcast recordings this week, and it was a little overwhelming to say the least! On the bright side, there are great interviews coming up soon.
Everyone is excited about the Conclave to select a new Pope that will begin next week. Presently, everything papal is trending on social media. We haven’t had an election since 2013 and much has happened in the social media space since then. There are already songs, TikTok dances and people in the Philippines are going all out for Cardinal Tagle. No Cardinal has quite the hype squad that he does. Last night, I re-watched “The Two Popes” on Netflix. It is a movie based on a biography of the relationship between Benedict XVI and Francis II. As you might remember, Benedict XVI resigned in 2013 after only 8 years on the Throne of St. Peter. Benedict XVI was in poor health and beset by more than a few scandals. He lived out his life in the country and this film goes over that history when the church had two popes.
You can check it out on my various streaming platforms, but I will be doing a live show with Michael Anderson on May 13th at 6 p.m. Eastern. He was recently on the show, and we had a great conversation about the Trump administration, the state of modern Liberals and much more. He is the author of several books, and our interview was not long enough. We’ll be picking back up the conversation during our live. Stop on by any of my streaming channels to watch! Don’t forget to like, subscribe and get notifications for special events!
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The Latest
Apple Loses Big in Court
This week, there was a bit of tech news that was lost to most other outlets. Apple and Epic games, the maker of Fortnite, have been locked in a years-long battle over Apple’s 30% cut of all transactions through its app store, even ones that take place on a web browser. For developers making apps for iOS, this was already a bother, but a built-in expense. It was a nice toll booth for Apple and one of the reasons that they are a trillion dollar company (depending on the market).
For a company like Epic who makes its money on transactions within its games, this is a massive loss. Epic, due to the volume, asked for an accept or to negotiate with Apple. Apple flat out refused, saying that there were no exceptions to the fee. Epic took Apple to court for anti-competitive practices and this week, they finally won. Epic has taken its games off the Apple App Store for years, but with this decision, they may be returning. If you want to read a break down on this story, legally, check out this thread on X.
Ukraine Mineral Deal
Speaking of news that didn’t really make the mainstream this week, the Trump Administration announced that they had signed a minerals and redevelopment deal with Ukraine. No word on the peace deal with Putin that will enable the mining to begin, but right now, Ukraine has agreed to sell us rare earths while we redevelop their country once the bombing stops.
There is still a bit of a stalemate between Moscow and Washington over the situation in Ukraine. Trump is threatening more sanctions and tariffs. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has proposed legislation that would levy a 500% tariff on anyone who buys resources from Russia. I doubt this bill will pass, and it is certainly a psyop if there ever was one, but that would certainly upset the global trading order more than it has been upset before.
Trump has been more hawkish on Russia as of late (which is a good thing) because he’s trying to push for a peace deal of some kind in Ukraine. Whether Putin will be open to settling for some territory, no NATO membership and Ukraine’s ability to join the EU is quite another matter. That was the last deal that was on the table, and negotiations have since stalled.
I am inclined to say that Putin is not going to take a deal, at least any time soon. They have re-taken Kursk (again) and are making strides. If Putin thinks that it will be territory for peace, then he’s going to want to be sitting on as much land as possible when the deal finally does happen. It’s spring-time, the frozen weather has opened up and operations can proceed. Putin doesn’t seem to be eager for a deal, and why would he be?
Tariff Doom and Gloom
“You need to ease up on the tariff doom and gloom, you’ll look stupid when it doesn’t pan out.”
If you’ve been feeling like I’ve been a bit a doomer about the tariff and trade situation, I can assure you that I’m not. What I will continue to do is report what is going on. I think the reality will be somewhere between the apocalypse and nothing happening. There will be shortages in odd places and with odd things that have effects throughout the economy. There will be some immediate job losses, especially in logistics and other sectors that are dependent on moving goods. There will be a measure of economic chaos. You don’t decouple the world’s two largest economies overnight and not have consequences. Global growth will be down this year and the whole world will feel the pinch. I don’t think we’re headed toward a horrific Depression, but a Recession could be on offer if this goes on. That’s the reality as I see it and so do many others.
This week, China reported that it was considering how to negotiation with the Trump administration on tariffs and how those negotiations might begin. As CNBC put it, it could end with a protracted “truce that could last until the end of Trump’s term.” Leaving markets with uncertainty that could last years.
The reality of the changes in the everyday lives of Americans is already becoming evident as prices begin to rise on certain things and popular shopping apps like TEMU adjust their logistics to minimize the price rises due to the tariffs.
There is also this debate going around right now about who is in the weaker position. On the one side, people like to point out that China does not really need the U.S. market. We only buy 10-15% of their exports (we had already started to move away from China after Covid) and that China could continue to trade with the rest of the world and leave the U.S. market behind. They also argue that the U.S. requires China far more because they make things that we need, not just non-essential consumer goods but for pharmaceuticals and other essential items that we cannot live without. Those who think the U.S. has the upper hand, think that China’s weakened economy, debt problems, and street protests will force Beijing to the table to stave off the economic damage. As with many things, the truth is probably somewhere between those two ideas and is “a little of column A and a little of column B.”
Articles of Interest:
The latest installment in my “What the Hell is Going on? collection:
My review of Trump’s first 100 days:
Join Executive Contributor Dan Sanderson and his latest post on Plato:
Keep up with The Cameron Journal Podcast
The Interview:
The Cameron Journal Newshour:
Discover more from The Cameron Journal
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