(a cautionary tale)

The 2020 election was supposed to be a blue wave. It was supposed to be a decisive rejection of Trumpism and all it stood for. It wasn’t. Even the 2018 “Blue Wave” only managed to put Democrats back into the House of Representatives. Democrats lost ground in the Senate, and they only gained a handful of governorships and statehouses. The GOP still controls the majority of statehouses and governor’s mansions. This also means that redistricting in most states will be another fight now that the census (although imperfect due to Trump regulations and the pandemic) has concluded, and congressional districts will be redrawn. Some states may even add 1 or 2 districts. I recently read a tweet that stated a likely future for the United States. He stated that the GOP would rule as a minority party after 2024. I’ve been sitting on this post for a while, and as a practical matter, I agree. It’s not the outcome that I favor, but I think it is quite likely. Here’s why: 

They don’t care about the media and neither do their voters

A big part of running an effective democracy has open and honest media that can expose and criticize the government. This makes sure there is an informed citizenry who can pressure their representatives for policy changes. Media can and should shine a light on the problems we face as a society and help people organize to do something about it. However, in today’s political environment, the media is not doing this task, and most people aren’t even watching the same shows or channels. Both sides believe we are facing two completely different sets of problems. Everyone is inside their own curated media bubble, and the media, especially the internet and TV, have leaned into partisan catering for the sake of clicks and ratings. This means that most of the country isn’t even reading from the same set of facts. The proverbial choir is on different hymnals. For both sides, this has created a hurricane of outrage as the media filters back the next outrageous news story pitched to cause maximum anger. In this environment, it is hard to tell what is truth, fiction, or scam. It is hard to remain impartial and see both sides of the issue. People have given up. Especially given the extraordinary events that have occurred. Both the Right and the Left have given up on media. The Left complains that the corporate-owned media reinforces Republican talking points and are not progressive enough. The Right, led by Trump, has decried much of the mainstream press as “fake news” and disengages from all but the most conservative outlets. What does this lead to? The media can no longer pressure politicians to maintain democratic norms. The power of the fourth estate has been reduced to nearly nothing. Few people agree on the facts but, everyone is angry, and the politicians can do whatever they like. Mitch McConnell was able to get away with obstruction for so long because he only paid attention to one group. As long as he had their support, he could sit on his legislative hands. There was no way to pressure him to take a different course. What have you learned? The GOP doesn’t care about media that doesn’t support them, and neither do their voters. This means that if they can rig the game (voter suppression, voter cleansing,  redistricting)  to keep winning elections, then they can stay in power without ever bothering to think about public pressure that doesn’t come from their own party. 

Democrats live in too few places and are too concentrated 

Like it or not, we have a land-based voting system for President. This means that there are mechanisms between the several states to make sure that less populous states have a bigger voice at the expense of larger, more populous states. One of the difficulties with democrats is that they live in too few places. One of the ways Georgia turned blue was due to demographic changes, primarily in Metro Atlanta. It’s not like Georgians had a change of heart suddenly. Trump supporters got outvoted by their new neighbors. Biden managed to win the presidency without Texas or Florida. This is unusual in modern American politics. Texas and Florida have huge electoral college votes that represent millions of people. But that’s not where Biden voters live. The democratic voice will never be truly heard because democrats tend to live on the coasts and in large cities. GOP voters tend to live in smaller cities and rural areas. If Democrats really want to change America, the best thing they can change right now is their zip code.  It is nearly impossible at the federal level to win elections at a national level the way Biden won in 2020.  It is not a road map in the future. The trend has been in the other direction. Back in 2015, I interviewed the author of The Big Sort. He argued that Americans were physically moving apart. Republicans moving to areas where they were dominant, and Democrats were doing the same. He argued that we really live in two Americas and physically distinct places. 

They don’t play the politics game any more

Politics normally is made of compromises and deals. “Support my piece of legislation, and I’ll help you on my committee” has been the way democracy has gone in this country. However, since the Obama years, the GOP has committed itself to completely disengaging from this process, and it has worked very well for them. Years of stalling the Obama agenda paid off for them electorally over and over again. Voters rewarded the behavior in 2016 and a Republican majority with few interruptions from 2011-2019. The Democrats have nominal control of the Senate for the first time in a decade. The GOP is not likely to leave a winning strategy any time soon. This means that not playing politics and litigating things in public will likely continue to go on for some time. Congress is incredibly divided right now. Biden is trying to reach out, and so far, the GOP does not hear his tune. Why not? Because for them, it pays to turn a deaf ear. 

They care only for power 

Democrats have a major flaw. They want to be right and in power at the same time.  This isn’t easy to do in American politics. The GOP has completely given up on the moral and ethical high ground and has gone in one seizing power at whatever cost. Ted Cruz is a prime example of this phenomenon. He will often say one thing and then say the reverse of it within days. Obviously, the grand poobah of this behavior is Donald Trump, who will contradict himself in the same hour. The GOP likes using power for their own ends and the agenda of their corporate donors (2017 tax cut, for example). Often they seek power and do nothing with it. Under the Trump Administration, they never passed a new budget. For four years, the government-operated on a series of continuing resolutions on the FY2016 budget. Even after the 33-day shutdown, Trump didn’t pass a new budget. Spending was modified several times, but federal spending has not had a proper review in about 5 years. The GOP merely likes to have the power to stop the winds of social progress. 

They are trying to secure a certain way of life 

The GOP and many of their voters have a view of America that is basically divorced from reality. Many people, stuck in nostalgia, are wishing for the America that was and can never be again. Much of the GOP at the national level are simply trying to maintain a certain way of life. They want things to stay as they always have been. Problems like income inequality and mass incarceration are not viewed as bad things worthy of change. The chief rub is that many Republicans don’t want to pay for a robust social safety net. They cloak this in terms of freedom and choice, but that’s the reality of the thing. This is much of the working-class appeal of the GOP. The middle class has been squeezed with stagnant wages and growing tax bills for decades. The appeal of fewer taxes and more people resonates with people who do just that every day. Donald Trump articulated this clear when he started his “suburb invasion” narrative in the 2020 election. He pledged to save the suburbs from being redeveloped to include low-income and multi-family housing. If you can’t afford to own your own home in the GOP world, you need to work harder. Poverty is not a cash flow problem; it is a moral failing. Why save the immoral with a social safety net? Asks the average GOP congressperson. They do not see America for its problems that need big solutions. They see an America where working two jobs is just fine and working yourself to the bone with no benefits is simply the way life works. 

The GOP could very well be engineering things in their favor by getting just enough people in just the right places to stay in power for a very long time. The only thing that can help is a Stacey Abrams-level event staged nationwide. But most importantly, minds need to shift and change. This will be difficult, but I can only hope that in this moment of crisis, people begin to learn that perhaps the GOP way of life isn’t so good after all.