How House of Cards Predicted Trump

Most folks have tried to put House of Cards out of their minds since some shocking allegations about Kevin Spacey came out, and he subsequently came out as a gay man. His career skyrocketed to new fame for playing Frank Underwood on Netflix’s first episodic show. As much as I like Robin Wright, Season 6, which was Kevin Spacey free was not nearly as good as the preceding 5 seasons. 

House of Cards was a preview of what we would live through in the Trump Administration. Now that the Trump administration is coming to a close (we hope), I’d like to look back at House of Cards and show you how the show predicted Trump almost perfectly, particularly Season 5, Episode 5. I recently rewatched the entire show because I had gotten tired of The West Wing and Veep, and I’m taking a break from The Golden Girls. I rewatched most of Madam Secretary, but then I remembered why I quit watching that show. Although, the guy who played Lucas Goodwin (Sebastian Arcelus) was also on Madam Secretary, and I can completely see why! 

Just to Recap…

By season 5, Frank Underwood has rocketed through Washington’s ranks from House Whip for the democrats to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. He did this through several clever moves to get from the House to the Vice Presidency and then put it all on the line to get President Walker to resign so he could take over the top job. Underwood and his chief henchman Doug Stamper fucked, killed, and spied their way to the top. In season 4 and 5, Frank is running for a term of his own, and by episode 5, it’s not going well. Two states have refused to certify their election results, leaving no one with a majority in the electoral college and sending the vote to the House. Oh, and the Supreme Court is down a justice as well. The episode opens with him walking down from the Jefferson Memorial, explaining all of this in the “break the fourth wall style” that the show made famous. If any of this plot sounds familiar, it’s a similar story to what we face right now. There’s no indication that President Trump will acknowledge the election results, and there’s no indication that he intends to leave in January. 

Presidential elections

It’s important to get clear about the process of how elections work in this country. After all the people vote in the election and all the ballots are counted (this always has taken weeks), the county clerks of the state certify their county results. These certifications are then submitted to the State Secretary of State, and the State Secretary of State then certifies the results for the state per state election laws. Once the election is certified, the results are sealed in stone, and the ballots are either destroyed or stored depending on the state. Some states have mandatory recount thresholds that can be triggered that delay this process. House of Cards digs into this process at a deep level. In most elections, the winner is obvious, and most of the public doesn’t think about these additional legal steps after an election. When a president is being elected, once the State Secretary of State certifies the election, the electors, who are appointed by the state legislature (in some cases, each state has their own rules about this) are then instructed on how they should vote when the electoral college meets in Washington D.C. in December.

When the public votes for President, they are actually voting for who their state’s electors should vote for. Some states have bound electors that must vote with the people’s will, and some states have free electors that can do whatever they want. If a candidate wins a majority of that state’s vote, then they are awarded all those electors except for Nebraska and Maine, who divide their electors by congressional district. Yes, this is America, and we have to make this as complicated as humanly possible. Once the electors are appointed, they go to Washington D.C. and actually vote for President. The Senate certifies the votes, and the presidential election is finally complete. In House of Cards, this entire process is laid out in the full display. If you are confused about what you’ve just read, watch season 5 of House of Cards, and you can see this whole process in action. 

And it’s surely to their credit

In typical Frank Underwood form, he’s had a tough campaign and no guarantee that he would win. He backed his way into the White House to start with. He’s pissed off congress, tested loyalties both on the Hill and in his own administration. He reallocated money from Fema to fund his disastrous America Works program, and his popularity with the American people had not been that high during his brief tenure as President. He’s hanging onto power by a thread. There’s no norm he won’t break, including getting his wife nominated to be his Vice-President. It’s obvious throughout the show that the Underwoods love power more than anything else. Their lust for power is suited far more to a monarchy or an oligarchy than a democracy. They will do whatever it takes to keep and maintain power. They will kill anyone (Zoey Barnes and Rachel), lock up anyone (Lucas Goodwin), and they will smear whoever they have to (Jackie Sharp). 

Posse comitatus

Does any of this start to sound familiar? Do we know anyone in government who traffics in loyalty, lies to our faces, lusts after power like a crack addict, and will break every norm just because he can? I’m not the first to say it, but right now, House of Cards is a lesson in how democracy can go very wrong when a sociopath gets some power. Sociopaths are dangerous all on their own, but when you match a sociopath with charisma, charm, and the ability to manipulate situations to his benefit and even lay his own neck on the line to get what he wants, you get a hazardous person. This is doubly true when that person gets real power. 

In the 4 years of Donald Trump, we have learned that he will do anything (and I do mean anything) to get and maintain power. He will traffic in racism, tell the press to get stuffed in so many words and attack the electoral process to hang onto power. So far, Trump’s many lawsuits are getting him nowhere in overturning the election. He’s not as smart as Frank Underwood, but I do not doubt that he will pursue power with the same amount of drive. He faces dozens of lawsuits, investigations, and possibly a commission on Presidential Crimes pioneered by the incoming Biden Administration. Trump and his children could be shuffling from cars to courtrooms for years. Trump and his family will spend millions on lawyers. Kushner’s companies could very well go under, and Trump is on the hook for millions with no real way to pay for it. Trump has to stay in power; otherwise, his entire world will come crumbling down. 

Just like Frank Underwood. 

He shall from time to time…

Political shows are a reflection of the time they are written in. House of Cards worked well because it began in the heady Obama years, where we trusted the President far more than we do now. House of Cards had to end because it was getting uncomfortably close to reality. The West Wing had the same thing. It was the perfect antidote to the problematic Bush years. Veep had to get off the air because the incompetency of the Selina Meyer world was uncomfortably close to how Trump was operating. Thank goodness we got 7 seasons of that hilarity. Even the incident where the Trump campaign decided to hold a press conference at a landscaping company seems to be straight out of Veep. You can see Amy and Dan blaming each other for that. In fact, season 7 starts with a similar situation. 

The last hurrah

What’s the point of all this? Political shows do a great job of predicting the future. They create a fantasy where the improbably gets played out on screen. TV shows have had female Presidents and VPs for years, and now we have a real-life example in Kamala Harris. What’s frightening is that House of Cards is about a power couple who will do anything from murder to a crazy three-way with their secret service agent to maintain power and fulfill their lusty needs. Our system does not have the necessary checks and balances to stop this behavior. Democracy worked best when all parties involved work in good faith. Democracies fail when parties quit acting in good faith, and that is what we face right now in the United States. These are scary times, indeed.