Tariff Time: The Newsletter

Introduction

Welcome to The Cameron Journal Newsletter! This week, it’s all about Trump Tariffs and the reverberations around the world from what can only be described as an economic reset.

The World is Hard, This is Not

Each week I send out the latest headlines, the latest videos from The Cameron Journal and commentary about the week’s events. If you’re new here, my name is Cameron Lee Cowan M.A. MFA, and I’m the Creative Director here at The Cameron Journal. You can learn more about me on the about page. I do research and commentary on politics, culture, and the world around us. Remember, The World is Hard, This is Not.

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Updates

Hello there! Sorry about missing last week’s newsletter. I had a problem with my studio. I use my MacBookPro laptop as a desktop/mac studio and my hub that allows me to record, have a big monitor, and use my other equipment died after 3 years of faithful service. It threw off my entire schedule and I ended spending most of Thursday night and into the small hours frantically scrolling on Amazon and looking for a replacement that I could get shipped in.

Bad equipment made doing most things incredibly difficult. I was using my iPad to take meetings and the stress of it all, after a long week, wiped me out. I recovered in good order, but I’m now a bit behind on things. As someone who is currently battling some burn out, it was certainly a blow. Fortunately, this week ahead has plenty of time for me to catch up on things.

I want to move onto the headlines and such, but I would like to thank everyone for being here. There are many new readers in the newsletter these days, and I am very excited to continue to explain the world to you. I’m also really proud of all these new views on my videos! Thanks for watching!

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The Latest

Let’s dive into the stories I’m following this week!

Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs

If you are unlike Trump voters, you might want to read this article from Bloomberg about how tariffs work. However, this knowledge may not be useful now because everyone is getting a fast lesson in how tariffs work and how trade wars can work. Now, the first thought most people will have is simple, “Hey Cameron, didn’t Trump put in tariffs in his first term?” Yes, he did, and then you would follow up with another question, “And didn’t Biden keep all those tariffs?” That would be correct. Two things can be true at once. The tariffs from the first term were targeted at specific goods and industries. We all recall the scandal over soybeans piling up because China stopped buying them due to a tariff, and Trump arranged a bailout for farmers for $12 Billion. The food men always get paid. In any case, the tariffs that were announced on April 2, the so-called “Liberation Day” were wide-ranging and sweeping across all goods. The US has not had tariffs this high since 1968.

The consequences of this are spreading throughout the global economy. China has responded with 34% tariffs on all American goods. The EU is preparing new tariffs, and Canada and Mexico have already announced 20% tariffs on select American goods like autos. California has requested that it be exempt from the new tariffs, but no word on if anyone is planning on honoring that.

Please scroll down to “Articles of Interest” for my longer piece on Trump’s tariffs and the economic reset he is proposing at Brainz Magazine.

The April 2nd announcement ends 80 years of ever-more free trade that has created the prosperity that we have all become familiar. Between liberalizing trade and trying to prevent conflict, trade has always been used as a way to maintain peace and increase economic prosperity. Fewer people live on a dollar a day than ever before. Global poverty, thanks to the rise of China, has been radically reduced. However, there were downsides. The industrial bases of the developed world eventually collapsed due to foreign competition and outdated technologies. This turned downs of coal and steel into ghosts. Families had to make hard decisions about how to support themselves, and their children did not have those stable middle-class jobs available to them when they grew up. Free trade might have delivered cheaper goods but the economic growth of a globalized world flowed to the top and left many people behind. A services and knowledge economy isn’t serving everyone. For those without education, training or who just aren’t suited to the jobs we have created, there are few options. People have finally had it and the people have elected someone who makes big promises about doing everything necessary to bring back the jobs that don’t require much skill but do offer a decent wage and a bit of dignity.

I found this thread on how the tariff rates were calculated to be hilarious. All they did was take the total amount of the trade deficit and then use the different to calculate the tariff. They did not look at the tariff schedule and order tariffs based on what other countries were charging us. One trader/economist described it as the biggest economic mistake.

As another aside, small packages from overseas retailers are going to be subject to tariff. For those who do drop-shipping from China and companies like Temu, Wish, and Shein will be most affected because their goods will rise in price and will make many business models completely impractical as the taxes will be too high for it to be practical. I know that Temu, in preparation for this, has already moved some of its fulfillment to American warehouses.

The New Geopolitics

I found this thread from Velina Tchakarova to be quite interesting about the matchup of the “DragonBear” of Russia and China and why the US is retrenching within North America and South America. South American tariffs remained modest at 10% (which is a clear signal). In my new piece from Brainz Magazine, I talk about what I think Trump is trying to do, but I think her theory about Trump and company preparing for a multipolar world is somewhat accurate. I don’t know whether they are doing it intentionally or just ushering it in through their incompetence but either way, the message is clear, the US is taking a big step back on the world stage and wants to bring everything much closer to home.

Although, given how things are going with Mexico and Canada, the US is not exactly endearing itself to Mexico City or Ottawa at this point. Geographically, they are stuck with us and Trump is comfortable breaking the transatlantic partnership with the UK and Europe to accomplish his goals of “making America great again.” When you look at the US vs Russia, China and possibly Europe, much of what is happening is starting to make sense. I think people are exhausted of our global commitments and the cost that we incur to keep them. I don’t think people understand how much more dangerous the world will be without a strong US presence. However, for those that can’t pay their bills, an invasion in Ukraine is the least of their worries. Politics starts at the kitchen table, doesn’t it?

From The Cameron Journal

From my new collection: What the Hell is Going On?

Autocracy American Style

Articles of Interest:

My latest from Brainz Magazine: Trump’s Economic Reset and The Possibilty of a New Future

Keep up with The Cameron Journal Podcast

The Interview:

The Cameron Journal Newshour: