Update from Cameron
Hello from Winter! My Mom texted me today and told me that it seemed like New England was getting the rest of the country’s winter. I laughed as we face another blizzard with 12–18 inches of snow on top of the 2 feet (0.61 m) that hasn’t even melted yet (in any meaningful way). Things are getting glacial. I ordered groceries before the storm.
I wanted to let everyone know that I’m going to be starting a series of Salons where I gather the best guests of The Cameron Journal (and a few friends) for an evening of chat that will include Q and A with the guests. If you’ve been wanting to ask questions of certain guests, now is the time. It will be free to CameronJournal+ subscribers, so now might be a great time to join (see below).
You’ve probably also noticed that some ads have started appearing in the newsletter, I will be launching an ad-free version as part of a Substack Subscription or CameronJournal+ membership here shortly (working on logistics of that). Yet another great reason to join CameronJournal+. If you’ve ever been interested in joining our Executive Contributor Program or working with me on messaging for you or your company, members get discounts on services and programs, including The Power of Story writing courses. So now is a great time to join.
Now onto the headlines!
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The News Narratives of the Week
Don’t forget to join me on Monday for The Cameron Journal Newshour, and we’ll be back on Tuesday for the State of the Union
The Cuba Squeeze
One of the little international relations stories that have snuck under everyone’s nose is the situation in Cuba. Thanks to an oil embargo that has cut Cuba off from oil from Venezuela, Cuba has simply run out of fuel to continue civilized society. Hospitals and others are running on what little reserves they have. The national grid is blacking out from a simple lack of fuel to create electricity.
The Trump administration claims that it is in talks with the Cuban government for an agreement to lift the embargo, but it isn’t clear if any communication is actually taking place. Trump is asked about it in this video, and it doesn’t seem like they have a complete handle on the situation.
Cuba is already desperate, and people will start to die in some number as medical care and other facilities fail due to a lack of electricity. Obviously, the Trump administration wants a sweetheart deal with Cuba and if Marco Rubio is in charge, he will certainly have a laundry list of demands to restore oil shipments. Failing that, the Cuban regime is unlikely to last very long with these conditions. Food will spoil, calories will be tough to find (even in a country where that’s already a problem) and the government will feel the pressure and given its fragility would likely fall without too much bloodshed. Obviously, The Trump administration is pleased with either solution to the Cuba “problem.”
This is part of the Trump administration’s goal of consolidating power within North and South America. I understand the strategy of consolidating power in our neighborhood and wrapping the unfinished business that is Cuba. Most people forget that we seized Cuba from Spain during the Spanish American war and then granted them independence far sooner than the Philippines. Of course, we all know that in 1959, Cuba’s dictator would fall to communist insurgents led by Fidel Castro. Castro would become one of the faces of global communism. It put the communist threat right on the doorstep of the U.S. thousands fled the island nation, especially those who had owned industries, casinos, and resorts that the government seized. The US had a near-completely embargo and travel ban on Cuba until the Obama administration, that opened up some trade and travel with the island nation.
It appears now that the Trump administration is squeezing Cuba, hoping they will either break or collapse. Either outcome is likely, but both outcomes fall right in the Trump administration’s plan. Is it a good thing? That depends on who you ask, using a critical resource to get a country to bend to your will is classic realpolitik. It is certainly against international law and there’s the moral implications. However, the Trump administration is hardly concerned with such things, their foreign policy is one that lives in real politics, and they will use any lever to achieve their goals, just ask Venezuela.
Democrats Can’t Meet the Moment
We are living in tough times. I look outside each day and I no longer have to wonder what it must have been like to live in the 1930s Germany. We are now in it. I was reading somewhere today (future Cameron here, it was Der Spiegel) that the US is marching toward dictatorship without much resistance. So what’s the deal? It seems like this is the Democrats’ moment to at least do everything they can. Schumer has a minute amount of power in the Senate, and he has used to save healthcare subsidies and stop ICE funding (at least without some concessions). Otherwise, the messaging from Democratic leaders has been milquetoast at best and terrible at worst (Looking at you Hakeem Jeffries). While resist libs in 2017 marched and democrats gripped the chair for the 2018 mid-terms, the first two years were about trying to stop as much as possible and hang on. Once back in power (in the House) they promptly got busy impeaching Trump and stopping legislation at every turn. The memory of Nancy Pelosi tearing up a copy of President Trump’s State of the Union speech in 2019 still burns. This time, the quiet resignation from democrats both in leadership and among the rank and file is deafening.
One of the narratives coming-out of 2024 was defeat and resignation. I had said as much myself. 2024 was not merely an election loss, it was a complete defeat of the American left and the liberal project. It appears that the Democratic Party has surrendered in all but word. However, it appears that unlike 2017, rank and file voters are waiting for national democrats to lead. On things like ICE, people have been choosing to take action and resist ICE action without much leadership from the head of the party, and in some cases it has been bipartisan. As it turns out, America’s aren’t too keen on being occupied. Figures like Mamdani and others have drawn attention to themselves in an environment where American liberalism is lacking a clear leader and a clear vision of what’s next. Jon Ossof is one of the few Democrats who seem to be meeting the moment, and you can see it in this latest speech.
Democrats need to form a real resistance and need to have leadership at this moment. Their voters, even diehards are looking for some leadership or something from the leaders in the party, and they just aren’t getting, leaving people with the distinct impression that they simply have nothing to say. In a recent NYT focus group, they said as much. It also creates the impression Democrats are weak in a high stakes situation, hardly the people you want to lead the country.
Incidentally, the DNC could take notes from Mamdani, Spansberger and other local democrats who are doing well in their states and districts. They are trying to chart a way forward that connects with people who see cracks in the Trump administration’s policies and could constitute a set of new policies that Democrats can win on.
Midnight in Tehran
While we learned a little about what is happening in Cuba, Iran is facing quite a more overt threat to the world’s only theocracy: military action. As I am writing this in my cozy office in Connecticut, the Pentagon is moving US military assets into the region in such a number that it can only describe as a heavy bombing force. While we might mention spheres of influence and the US withdrawing into our fortress on our continent, our action in Iran shows that on certain matters we still have a global influence and ambition.
So why would the US be interested in bombing Iran (again) and more heavily this time. There are two answers: Israel and China. I enjoyed this thread from Mark Forney on X (formerly known as Twitter) about the implications of taking Iran off the chessboard for China and how it will strangle China’s economy with a lack of oil. The only flaw in this logic is that China can buy plenty of oil from Russia, and it’s just as close as Iran and probably with fewer problems (although geography becomes a factor). As far as why Israel is ready for Iran to be bombed is quite obvious: Iran funds terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran and Israel have already exchanged missiles in the last year, and Israel would like nothing more than its big brother to obliterate Iran and cause regime change that would be friendly to Tel Aviv.
However, I don’t know that an air campaign is exactly what is needed to cause the Iranian regime to fall. It is unlikely that the Ayatollahs will roll over that easy, and there’s no guarantee that the population will respond to bombings with an overthrow of the government. The one thing Iran does have going for it is an active diaspora with institutions. When I had Zolal Habibi on The Cameron Journal Podcast, we learned all about the institutions that are already established to take power if and when the theocracy falls. That could help in a transition government situation. There is also Reza Pahlavi, the Crown Prince of Iran, son of the last Shah, he has been outspoken about helping usher Iran into a new era.
In any case, President Trump has announced that he will decide about bombings in the next 2 weeks. Assets are already moving. Tehran knows this is coming. We aren’t making it a secret. The B-52s are being pre-positioned and ships are making sail for the area. I will be interested in what he says at the State of the Union on Tuesday night (don’t forget to join me live!) I can’t say that I’m sad to see the Ayatollahs fall. It would make the world a more secure place but my thoughts are with the many who will die in the coming struggle. The human cost of these things is always what bothers me the most. I hope it will be for the greater good.
Articles of Interest
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Each week, Cameron Lee Cowan wraps up the headlines with commentary, helping you navigate today’s media narratives, how they are affecting our Culture, Lifestyle, and Society.
The World is Hard, This is Not
If you’re new here, my name is Cameron Lee Cowan M.A. MFA, and I’m the Creative Director here at The Cameron Journal. You can learn more about me on the about page. I do research and commentary on politics, culture, and the world around us. Each week I send out the latest news narratives, the latest videos from The Cameron Journal and commentary about the week’s events.
Remember, The World is Hard, This is Not.
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