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It will be some time before the economy fully recovers from the global shutdown. It’s no secret that economically, things are not doing well. As it turns out, you can’t shut down the global economy for a year and expect things to bounce back to the way they were. It’s just not possible. According to Gizmodo, it could take the economy up to a decade to finally recover from the economic shocks of Covid-19.
The global economy is already back on a growth trajectory. In 2021, countries that are re-opening their economies are growing at rates not seen in decades.
However, as mentioned in the video from The Economist, there are two recoveries going on. Wealthy nations are growing which means growth for developing nations will lag behind. The situation domestically takes a similar path. The wealthy have gained $1 Trillion over the past year and a half while the poorest Americans have lost savings and wealth due to job loss. Although the unemployment supports and stimulus checks were helpful, the return to work for many Americans has been terribly uneven. Many of the service sector businesses where people once worked have closed. The places that are left are desperate for workers because wages remain too low, and many people have used the opportunity to move on to other careers. Economists feared a K-shaped recovery where the wealthy would do very well and the poor wouldn’t and that’s what shaped up.
Another aspect I covered on The Cameron Journal weekly news podcast this weekend is the terrible shortages happening throughout the economy. Car companies can’t get computer chips for their new cars and that is leading to higher prices for used cars, fewer new cars being sold, and factories being idled. Getting in new parts and supplies from a strained global logistics system is a huge hassle for small businesses and causes large companies to charter their own ships or look for other ways to move goods. Still, other companies are looking at re-shoring production facilities to reduce the travel time and logistical headaches. These logistical headaches will take many more months to unwind and hold back economic growth.
The other aspect is how people’s lives have been upturned by the pandemic. This week over at CameronJournal.com we have a video coming out from PBS about how millennials are moving back in with their parents. It is important to understand that the youngest millennials are 30 years old this year, while the oldest of us are in our early 40s. This is not a trend of college kids moving home (that’s Gen Z). Fully formed adults are finding that housing is too expensive, wages are too low, and with the shutdowns and uncertain future, they have moved back in with Mom and Dad. Millennials were just beginning to catch up when the pandemic struck and how have suffered two major setbacks in their adult lives. Recovering from the pandemic will be long and complicated for the under 45 sets.
Ultimately, the economy is still adjusting to a post-covid environment and all the changes that have come along with the pandemic. The healthcare system is still strained, and many professionals are fleeing. How we handle the pandemic will be key to our future economic recovery. Even if the pandemic does finally begin to ease, unwinding a global shutdown will take time.
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